Outerblue Convictions - Bond Market Volatility, Yield Curves, and Equity Resilience

Global markets are being shaped by a fast-moving geopolitical backdrop, with rising tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz adding to volatility across rates, credit and equities. In this episode of Outerblue Convictions, host Swaha Pattanaik speaks with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, about how the team is interpreting the latest moves in macro and bond market volatility, and what this means for portfolio allocation.

They discuss why bond yields have risen so sharply, how uncertainty around energy supply and inflation is feeding through to central bank expectations, and why the shape of the yield curve matters as much as the level of rates. Monica explains that steepening, meaning a wider gap between short- and long-dated maturities, has become a key signal as bond markets reassess policy, growth and fiscal risks. The conversation also covers the latest views on the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, and why the medium-term case for yield curve steepening remains intact even if the tactical picture is less clear.

The discussion then turns to equities, where resilience has held up surprisingly well but may face pressure from higher rates, valuation sensitivity and rising debt-service costs. Monica also assesses the UK market through the lens of credibility, fiscal discipline and term premium, drawing comparisons with Italy’s past experience in bond markets. Concise, timely and highly relevant, this episode offers practical insight for investors navigating a more volatile and differentiated environment.

Topics covered: geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, bond yields, yield curve steepening, short maturities, long maturities, central bank policy, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, inflation, energy prices, sovereign bonds, bond market volatility, equities, valuations, debt service costs, fiscal credibility, term premium, United Kingdom, Italy

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