Climate Volatility: From Green Swans to Antifragility | Managing Climate Stress-tests and Financial Risk

Abraham Lincoln once said, “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”. So why do well-known risk managements models fail to predict major events? Is it possible to know when and where the next crisis will come from? And how can we be better prepared?

In this episode of 2050 Investors, host Kokou Agbo-Bloua explores the theory of Black Swans, created by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and its relevance to sustainability, climate change, and financial markets.

Delving into the world of the unexpected, he draws parallels between the dramatic twists and turns of Tchaikovsky's "Swan Lake" and the unpredictability of life and finance, to investigate how sudden, unforeseen events—Black Swans—impact markets and our globalized world.

Kokou explains how these rare events, like the 2008 financial crisis and the recent COVID-19 pandemic, reshape financial landscapes.

In the context of climate change, these black swans are rebranded as ‘Green Swans’, symbolizing the increasing frequency and severity of climate events such as floods, heat waves, and wildfires. Join host Kokou Agbo-Bloua as he assesses the impact of these Green Swans on our ability to manage risks and how they pose significant challenges for our economies and sustainability efforts. Kokou also emphasizes the importance of understanding the limitations of traditional risk management models and adapt in a rapidly changing world.

Lastly, he explores how the principles of antifragility, another term coined by Taleb, can help systems benefit from external stressors, making them more resilient in the face of volatility and uncertainty.

About this show

Welcome to 2050 Investors, your monthly guide to understanding the intricate connections between finance, globalisation, and ESG.

Join host Kokou Agbo-Bloua, Head of Economics, Cross-Asset & Quant Research at Societe Generale, for an exploration of the economic and market megatrends shaping the present and future, and how these trends might influence our progress to meeting 2050’s challenging global sustainability targets.

In each episode, Kokou deep-dives into the events impacting the economy, financial markets, the planet, and society. Through a magical blend of personal anecdotes, in-depth research and narratives overlaid with music, sound effects, and pop culture references, there’s certainly something for everyone.

Kokou also interviews industry-leading experts, personalities, entrepreneurs and even Nobel prize winners! You will learn from the best on a wide range of subjects on current affairs, market shifts, and economic developments.

If you like 2050 Investors, please leave a five-star review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Your support will help us spread the word and reach new audiences. If you’re seeking a brief and entertaining overview of market-related topics and their business and societal implications, subscribe now to stay informed!

Previous episodes of 2050 Investors have explored ESG, climate change, AI, greenflation, globalization, plastic pollution, food, healthcare, biodiversity and more.

Credits

Presenter & Writer: Kokou Agbo-Bloua. Editors: Vincent Nickelsen, Jovaney Ashman, Linda Isker. Production Designer: Emmanuel Minelle, Radio K7 Creative. Executive Producer : Fanny Giniès. Sound Director: Marc Valenduc. Music: Rone. Graphic Design: Cédric Cazaly.

Whilst the following podcast discusses the financial markets, it does not recommend any particular investment decision. If you are unsure of the merits of any investment decision, please seek professional advice.

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